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Crypto market technical and fundamental analysis

📈 Technical analysis of the BTC/USDT chart

In the course of working out the main scenario of our last review, the price of Bitcoin made an upward exit from a narrow price range, against the background of the growth of the US stock market and the news that Grayscale won a lawsuit against the SEC.

Having overcome the dynamic resistance of EMA50 4H, it corrected its last impulse of fall to 0.78 Fibonacci level. Thus, the price came to the 4H Imbalance zone, where we expect a trade to close the dips at the horizontal levels of trading volumes.

If the price of BTC manages to hold and consolidate above the EMA 50, after the trade, we expect an upward movement to test the downtrend resistance line and the global trend line.

Otherwise, Bitcoin expects a decrease in order to add liquidity to a large support block of 24000-25000.

On the daily logarithmic chart, the price rolled back to a retest of the 200-day moving average, which will also determine the further direction of its movement. Let me remind you that the price of BTC made a downward exit from the bearish wedge pattern, which may lead to a deeper dive after the retest of the lower border of the pattern. In this case, a correction of the entire growth from the beginning of 2023 is possible with targets in the range of 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci levels, where the value zone control point (ROS) is located, the next area of interest for buyers is 22000-23000 and the most important psychological level is 20000.

The fear and greed index continues to be in the fear zone - 49.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen to $1,072 billion, while the Bitcoin dominance index has dropped to 49.75.

According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks of orders in the order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:

🟢 Demand zone: 22000 - 25000

🔴 Supply zone: 30000 - 32000

📊 Fundamental analysis

U.S. digital currency asset manager Grayscale won a lawsuit that found that the SEC had incorrectly rejected Grayscale's application to convert their BTC trust into a spot ETF. Now the SEC will have to reconsider the application from Grayscale. Let me remind you that the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF will open up access for large investors to investing in cryptocurrency and solve important regulatory issues, which can become an incentive for a new growth cycle.

At the same time, the outflow of investments from cryptocurrency products amounted to $168 million, which was the largest outflow since the repression by the regulatory body SEC.

The US stock market is rising, and the dollar index is falling on good data on the labor market, which means investors expect the Fed may not raise interest rates at its next meeting on September 20.

🌐 Upcoming events in the global economy

By the following dates, we expect increased volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ August 30 15:30 - Quarterly US GDP data.

➤ September 1 15:30 - US unemployment rate for August.

➤ September 20 21:00 - Next Fed rate decision.

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