đ Technical analysis BTC/USDT
Bitcoin is undergoing a local correction ahead of the halving, scheduled for April 20th. The price of BTC has already reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the last upward impulse and is currently testing the dynamic support line EMA 50 4H. In case it doesn't withstand the pressure from sellers, we expect the price to move towards the nearest significant support block at 65,000 - 66,000, which is at the 0.78 Fibonacci level. Currently, the price is moving within the bounds of a symmetrical triangle. However, if it breaks below its lower boundary, the targets for this correction could be the Imbalance 4H zones (64,000 - 65,000) and Imbalance 1D (58,000 - 60,000), where it's necessary to fill gaps in horizontal volume trading levels.
For a resumption of the uptrend, the price needs to establish itself above the upper boundary of the forming triangle and overcome the significant resistance block at 73,000 - 75,000. In this case, the target for Bitcoin's pre-halving rally could be a test of the global trend line in the area of the significant resistance block at 80,000.
đ Bitcoin market global analysis
Bitcoin is showing positive dynamics despite a decrease in the interest of large investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs and sales of coins by miners. The price of Bitcoin is entering the stage of a pre-halving bull rally. However, historically, Bitcoin halvings have been preceded by corrections. At the moment, we are considering two possible scenarios around the Bitcoin halving:
Updating the historical maximum before the halving in the range of 80,000 - 87,000, after which a deep correction is likely before the continuation of the bull rally. To realize this scenario, the price of Bitcoin needs to hold above the 70,000 level with a weekly candle. If Bitcoin can maintain its growth momentum until the halving, we may expect a global correction of the entire growth since 2023. Indeed, the halving could signal a sell-off based on the cryptocurrency reaching a local maximum.
A more significant correction now and updating the historical maximum after the halving, against the backdrop of changes in the Fed's policy and liquidity inflows into the markets.
Above the current ATH, we have no more resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will use trend lines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books.
We have a local upward trend line, which has been relevant since November 2023. Its test could occur at the 75,000 level, confirmed by a significant block of pending orders. Furthermore, in the range of 80,000 - 90,000, there is a global trend line built on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles. Additionally, the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level is located there. The highest trend line is in the range of 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci levels, and its test could start from the 100,000 level.
đ Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions
The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 80.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has decreased to 2,513 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 54.15.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels:
đ˘ Demand Zone: 60 000 - 66 000
đ´ Supply Zone:Â Â 73 000 - 80 000
Levels for long positions:
66,000: Retest of the local trendline support
60,000 - 62,000: Significant support block
55,000 - 58,000: Significant support block
Levels for short positions:
75,000: Significant resistance block
80,000 - 87,000: Test of the global trendline
100,000: Psychological resistance level
đ Fundamental analysis
With just 11 days remaining until the highly anticipated event in the cryptocurrency market - the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, 2024, anticipation is high. This event will halve the rate at which new BTC enters the market. Historically, the three previous Bitcoin halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 sparked cycles of cryptocurrency growth due to the formation of its deficit.
However, the latter half of April may prove to be highly unstable for Bitcoin due to the commencement of Quantitative Tightening (QT) by the US Federal Reserve, where the government reduces the amount of money in circulation. A true bullish market may only commence after May 1, when the Fed eases its QT measures and the US Treasury likely injects an additional $1 trillion, which should bolster market liquidity.
Interest from large investors in spot ETFs is waning. Weekly inflows have failed to return to the levels seen at the beginning of March. Meanwhile, trading volumes have decreased from an average of $43 billion to $17.4 billion.
Competition among miners has reached unprecedented levels. The Bitcoin network's hash rate has surged to approximately 600 EH/s compared to 116 EH/s since the last halving. This leap signifies that miners now require significantly more effort and resources to mine the same amount of BTC. At the same time, miners have begun actively selling the coins they mine. In late March, daily sales on over-the-counter platforms reached 1,600 bitcoins, marking the highest level since August 2023.
đ Upcoming Events in the Global Economy
The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:
⤠April 9th, 15:30 - US Consumer Price Index.
⤠April 20th - Bitcoin Halving.
⤠April 25th, 15:30 - US GDP Data for Q1.
⤠May 1st, 21:00 - New Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision.
⤠June 12th, 21:00 - New Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision.