📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT
The price of Bitcoin continues to follow the scenario outlined in our previous analysis. After retesting the point of control (POC) of the value area, the price has broken above the EMA50 on the 4-hour chart and breached the global descending resistance trendline. Currently, we are witnessing a test of a significant resistance block between 27,000-28,000, which will determine the direction of Bitcoin's price movement.
This bullish momentum occurred following a statement by the SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, where he acknowledged that Bitcoin is not a security.
If Bitcoin manages to establish itself above the descending trendline and break out of the current price range, we anticipate a move towards the 4-hour Imbalance zone. In this zone, traders should look for gaps in horizontal trading volume levels to be filled.
Additionally, a breakout above the trendline may occur after a retest if bulls are unable to immediately overcome the 27,000-28,000 resistance block. Consequently, during the trendline retest, a necessary correction of the recent bullish impulse may occur, retracing to the 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci levels.
On the daily logarithmic chart, an extended bullish divergence is being worked out, with a retest of the intersection between the 200-day and 200-week moving averages expected before further declines.
It's worth noting that, on a more global scale, the BTC price broke down from a bearish wedge pattern, and there hasn't been a proper correction of the entire year-to-date uptrend. The targets for this correction could be the 0.5-0.78 Fibonacci levels. In this range lies the 1-week Imbalance zone with significant gaps in horizontal trading volume levels that need to be filled. The next areas of interest for buyers are the 22,000-23,000 range and the crucial psychological level of 20,000. At these levels, we will be looking for reversal formations to accumulate long positions.
The fear and greed index is currently in the fear zone at 46.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen to $1,054 billion, while Bitcoin's dominance index has dropped to 50.03%.
Based on the analysis of large order blocks in exchange order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 17,000 - 22,500
🔴 Supply Zone: 28,000 - 32,000
📊 Fundamental analysis
Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, spoke before the House Financial Services Committee. Gary Gensler acknowledged that Bitcoin is not considered a security.
The market capitalization of stablecoins has been declining for 18 consecutive months. The total capitalization of all stablecoins in circulation in September decreased by 0.63% and reached its lowest level since August 2021. This decline can be attributed to reduced trading activity on exchanges.
On the other hand, the volume of BTC held by long-term holders is approaching an all-time high. In previous cycles, this has often been seen as a signal of an impending macro rally, followed by an early bull market phase.
Data on the U.S. GDP confirmed the forecast and now stands at 2.1%. Thus, in the second quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by 0.1% compared to the previous reporting period. The American stock market has already responded to this news with a slight increase in the index of the largest U.S. companies, the S&P 500. The DXY dollar index has decreased in response to these data.
🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events
The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:
➤ September 28th at 23:30 - Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
➤ October 3rd at 17:00 - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for August.
➤ October 12th at 15:30 - U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
➤ November 1st at 21:00 - New Federal Reserve interest rate decision.