📈 Technical analysis of the BTC/USDT pair
Bitcoin price tested the psychological support level of 25,000, after which it quickly returned to the value zone control point (POC) level. Thus, the price again failed to break out of the trading range in which it has been since August, and where it continues to trade Imbalance 1D. Now we are expecting a correction of the last growth impulse with a retest of the dynamic support line EMA50 4H.
If the price manages to consolidate above it and overcome the downward trend line of resistance, we will expect an upward exit from the price range with the aim of moving to the Imbalance zone 4H 27500-28500, where it is also necessary to close the gaps at the horizontal levels of trading volumes.
Otherwise, we may remain in the current price range for some time. And if sellers push through the lower limit of the price range and the price consolidates below the key level of 25,000, we expect a further decline into the 1W Imbalance zone.
An extended bullish divergence has formed on the daily logarithmic chart. This also favors the 200-day and 200-week moving average crossover scenario.
Let me remind you that the price of BTC came down from the bearish wedge pattern, and we still have not had a normal correction of all the growth since the beginning of this year.
The targets of this correction may be 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci levels, the next zone of interest for buyers 22000-23000 and the most important psychological level 20000. At these levels we will have reversal formations to recruit long positions.
The index of fear and greed continues to be in the fear zone - 30.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell to $1017 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index rose to 50.0.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks of orders in order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 20000 - 25000
🔴 Offer zone: 30000 - 32000
📊 Fundamental analysis
Mining profitability has fallen to historic lows, raising concerns among experts that their decline in revenue could eventually lead to the closure of more mining pools and the slowdown of the largest blockchain.
On September 13, the court must decide to unblock the assets of the collapsed FTX crypto exchange. A positive decision will allow the trading platform to sell $3.4 billion worth of cryptocurrency assets, including $1.1 billion worth of Solana and $560 million worth of Bitcoin. However, representatives of the crypto exchange made an agreement according to which they will sell assets for a maximum of $200 million per week in order to reduce the impact on the crypto market.
In addition, fresh data on consumer inflation in the US will be released tomorrow. The market may perceive the publication of negative data as a signal for a further increase in the Fed rate. This regulatory policy puts pressure on the stock market, followed by the cryptocurrency market. Also, raising the rate reduces the attractiveness of high-risk assets such as cryptocurrency.
🌐 Upcoming events in the global economy
We expect increased volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets by the following dates:
➤ 13.09 15:30 - Consumer Inflation Index (CPI).
➤ 20.09 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate.
➤ 28.09 15:30 - US GDP data (Q2).
➤ 01.10 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate.