📈 Technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart
The price of Bitcoin continues to trade the 1D imbalance zone, from time to time testing a powerful support block 24000-25000, confirmed by a huge accumulation of large blocks of orders in stock order books, where the 200-week moving average also passes.
Since, on the daily chart, the price of BTC has exited down from the bearish wedge pattern, but has not yet retested from below, we expect a correction of this movement to the 0.78 Fibonacci level and a retest of the lower border of the pattern, before further decline. In addition, during the last sharp drop, the price formed a new 4H imbalance zone, which requires trading to close dips at horizontal levels of trading volumes. The RSI indicators are now in the zone of extreme oversold, which also indicates a likely correction.
To confirm this scenario, buyers need to gain a foothold above the EMA50 4H line, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
Otherwise, if the sellers push the 24000-25000 level and the weekly candlestick closes below the 200-week moving average, this could mean the beginning of a correction of all growth from the beginning of 2023 with targets in the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci range, where the value zone control point is located (ROS), the next zone of interest for buyers is 22000-23000 and the most important psychological level is 20000. Thus, we have formed 3 potential reversal zones for adding long positions in case of continued decline:
📊 Fundamental analysis
The postponement of the SEC decision on Bitcoin ETF caused a significant outflow of funds from crypto funds. At the same time, BlackRock's decision to apply for an ETF has already bolstered investor confidence, signaling that the world's largest asset manager backs BTC. Progress in the Ripple vs. SEC case and the upcoming Grayscale lawsuit will be critical to the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. Now the chances of fund approval have increased from 1% to 65%. However, much will depend on the timing of the Grayscale case and the decision of the federal court.
The stock market has stopped falling. The index of the largest US companies S&P500 rebounded from the support level of 4335 near the 0.23 Fibonacci level and is testing the EMA50 dynamic resistance line. And the DXY dollar index continues to move up without a recoil.
🌐 Upcoming events in the global economy
By the following dates, we expect increased volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets:
➤ August 30 15:30 - Quarterly US GDP data.
➤ September 1 15:30 - US unemployment rate for August.
➤ September 20 21:00 - Next Fed rate decision.